Your Link to Muskoka's Water!

Establishment of physical baselines and hydroclimatic assessment

Catherine Eimers (PI/Trent University)
Huaxia Yao (co-PI/Dorset OMOE)
Jason Kerr (Post-doctoral fellow/Trent University)

Climate change projections indicate that temperature and precipitation patterns will  change throughout Ontario, including the Muskoka River Watershed. This may cause  changes to natural stream flow patterns, which could in turn influence water quality and ecosystem health. It is therefore important to understand how climate change might alter the natural flow patterns of streams within the region, and how this might in turn impact on the region's aquatic ecosystems.

This research will examine how climate impacts the timing and amount of stream water flow in the Muskoka River Watershed. We will use climate and stream data collected over the past 30 years by the Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental Centre as part of their long-term monitoring program.

The first part of the study will look at how streams in the region respond to changes in climate variables such as temperature, precipitation and rainfall intensity. In particular, we are interested in how climate impacts on not just the amount of water flow in streams but also how shifts in temperature or rainfall patterns alter the timing (e.g. onset of spring melt) or nature (e.g. flashiness/variability) of stream flow.

The second part of the study will use climate projections for the region to predict the impact that climate change will have on stream flow patterns and the likely implications for water quantity and quality in the Muskoka River Watershed. It is hoped that this information will help watershed managers ensure the sustainability of the region's water resources now and into the future.

Update - November 2013

 
Climate change projections indicate that temperature and precipitation patterns will change throughout Ontario, including the Muskoka River Watershed. To date, we have identified how past changes in temperature have altered the timing of summer stratification, fall turnover, and ice off events in a number of Muskoka River Watershed lakes. We are planning to use this information to make predictions regarding the likely impact of climate change on these and other important processes.

In addition to our work on lakes, we have been examining how climate variability affects important components of stream hydrology. We are currently examining trends in the timing of spring melt as well as stream flashiness at a number of streams throughout the watershed. Once this is completed, we will then examine the role of climatic variability as a driver of these hydrologic parameters.