Your Link to Muskoka's Water!

22 October 2012
Annual Update Workshop

Location: Nipissing University - Muskoka Campus, Bracebridge

Presentations

CWN Canadian Watershed Research Consortium Management Process
Janice Levangie (CWN Program Coordinator)

A geographic template for cumulative-effects assessment in the Muskoka River Watershed
Rachel Plewes (MSc, Carleton University)
(PI: Murray Richardson)

Assessing and modelling cumulative effects on biological communities
Chris Jones (PhD, Laurentian University)
(PIs: John Gunn & John Bailey)

Establishment of biological baselines in the Muskoka River Watershed and development of a diatom index for assessing lake and riverine health
Mark MacDougall (MSc, University of Waterloo)
(PIs: Andrew Paterson, Roland Hall & Jennifer Winter)

Hydro-climatic change in the Muskoka River Watershed
Jason Kerr (Post-doctoral fellow, Trent University)
(PIs: Catherine Eimers & Huaxia Yao)

Spatial and temporal controls on phosphorus export at Dickie Lake catchments
Kieran Pinder (MSc, Trent University)
(PIs: Catherine Eimers & Shaun Watmough)

Effects of Multiple Stressors on Chloride Ecotoxicological Thresholds for Daphniids in Soft-water Northern Ontario Lakes
Arran Brown (MSc, York University)
(PI: Norman Yan)

Establishing sustainable harvesting intensities in the MRW to sustain critical calcium levels in lakes
Carolyn Reid (MSc, Trent University)
(PI: Shaun Watmough & Julian Aherne)

Long-term changes in lake nutrient stoichiometry: effects on plankton productivity and species composition
Samaneh Gholami (PhD, York University)
(PIs: Jöerg Grigull & Norman Yan)

Evaluation and application of models: forecasting the water quality of the Muskoka Watershed under a changing future
Jill Crossman (Post-doctoral researcher, Trent University)
(PI: Peter Dillon)

Evaluation and application of SWAT model to surface waters in the Muskoka River Watershed
(PIs: April James & Huaxia Yao)

Controls on algal blooms and predictive modeling of bloom occurrence in the Muskoka River Watershed
Anurani Persaud (Post-doctoral researcher, Trent University)
(PIs: Peter Dillon, Andrew Paterson & Jennifer Winter)

Managing cumulative effects in the Muskoka River Watershed: Monitoring, research and predictive modeling - Team wrap-up
Catherine Eimers (Research Team Leader)

Controls on algal blooms and predictive modeling of bloom occurrence in the Muskoka River Watershed

Peter Dillon (PI/Trent University)
Andrew Paterson (PI/Dorset OMOE)
Jennifer Winter (co-PI/OMOE)
Anurani Persaud (Post-doctoral researcher/Trent University)

Blooms of algae are of particular interest because they pose a direct and immediate threat to water quality. Recent evidence suggests that the frequency and intensity of algal blooms have increased in Ontario lakes over the last several years, with some notable examples occurring within the Muskoka River Watershed, e.g. Three Mile Lake and Brandy Lake.

Therefore the primary goals of this project are:

1. To identify the key environmental stressors (physical, chemical and biological) affecting abundance and composition of the phytoplankton community.
    
2. To determine the spatial and temporal sampling frequency that is most effective for monitoring changes in phytoplankton assemblages over time.
    
3. To develop models that can be used to predict the likelihood of algal blooms in lakes of the Muskoka River Watershed.

Update - November 2013

 
Using detailed data collected bi-weekly over several years from two Muskoka lakes (Brandy and Three Mile) Anurani has developed models to predict the occurrence of algal blooms. Her analyses indicate that the factors linked to bloom development differ in the two lakes. Additionally, she found that chemical and physical parameters are more important predictors for bloom formation compared to meteorological factors.

22 April 2013
Annual End-Users Meeting

Location: Pine Room - District Municipality of Muskoka, Bracebridge

Presentations

Introduction and Overview of Project
Jim Rusak & Andrew Paterson

Establishment Hydro-climatic change in the Muskoka River Watershed (MRW)
Jason Kerr

Establishing sustainable harvesting intensities in the Muskoka River Watershed to sustain critical calcium levels
Shaun Watmough

Effects of modifying factors on chloride toxicity to Daphniids in soft-water Muskoka lakes
Norman Yan

Drivers of past declines in phosphorus?
Cathy Eimers

Assessing and modelling cumulative effects on biological communities
Chris Jones

Controls on algal blooms and predictive modeling of bloom occurrence in the Muskoka River Watershed
Anurani Persaud

Evaluation and application of SWAT model to surface waters in the Muskoka River
Watershed

April James (PI/Nipissing University)
Huaxia Yao (co-PI/Dorset OMOE)
(Post-doctoral fellow unassigned)

SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is an internationally used model developed to predict the impact of landuse change on water, sediment and chemical yields in large, complex, heterogeneous terrain. It was originally developed for agricultural landscapes but recent applications are expanding the use of SWAT to new landscapes and diverse landuses (including urban, forest, grasslands). It has extensive publicly available documentation, active users groups in Canada and around the world, and it is part of the USA EPA's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources) software system, a multipurpose environmental analysis system.

SWAT is a dynamic, mass balance model that models temporal changes in hydrologic flowpaths, transformation and stores of nutrients on land and in-streams. Our work will focus on evaluating the abilities of SWAT to model the hydrology and water quality within the Muskoka River Watershed. There has been limited application of SWAT on Canadian Shield forested terrain and climate.

The SWAT modeling code offers an ArcGIS interface, facilitating the use of digital landuse, topography and soils data, and is accessible for research-based alternations. The model includes upland processes (e.g snowmelt, evaporation, runoff, interflow, percolation), in-stream processes (e.g. in-stream kinetics), nutrient processes (e.g. N, P pools, crop uptake, degradation) and management activities.

SWAT modeling studies cover the range of scales (e.g. 1 to 5,000 km²) that span the DESC research catchments (e.g. Harp Lake catchment system) to the full extent of the Muskoka River Watershed, and can incorporate the different types of water bodies that are part of this landscape (e.g. reservoirs, wetlands, small lakes, ponds). Long-term yield simulation (e.g. daily, monthly, decades) makes SWAT well suited to modeling scenarios that incorporate stresses from climate and landuse change.

As part of this project, application of SWAT will formally begin in Spring 2013 with the hiring of a 1-year postdoctoral research position. Advertisement for this position will begin in July 2012.

We have reviewed the SWAT literature, its applications across relevant landscapes and landuse, its open-access codes, and possible modifications that may be required for application to the Muskoka River Watershed. We have collected and prepared a case-study field dataset, the Harp Lake catchment system, which will be used for our first trial of SWAT application and modification.

Update - November 2013

 
SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is an internationally used model developed to predict the impact of landuse change on water, sediment and chemical yields in large, complex,
heterogeneous terrain. Our work will focus on evaluating the abilities of SWAT to model hydrology and water quality within the Muskoka River Watershed.

The Harp Lake Watershed was used as a case-study for the first trial of SWAT. In this preliminary study we asked whether SWAT could provide reasonable and useful representation of hydrologic function for Canadian Shield watersheds. By testing SWAT on the Harp Lake catchment system, this effort was supported by an extensive 30-year dataset, including on-site water and nutrient balances.

We were particularly interested in testing how SWAT was able to model characteristics and streamflow generation processes that are common to the Canadian Shield (Muskoka River Watershed) landscape, including shallow forested soils with high infiltration rates and low bedrock infiltration, that generate little overland flow due to significant macropore and subsurface flow through hillslopes.

As part of this effort, several revisions were made to the SWAT model. Model results of streamflow, lake outflow and snowmelt are encouraging and suggest to us that additional investigation of hydrochemical/nutrient flux modeling, as well as a larger scale application of SWAT-CS in the Muskoka River Watershed will be valuable in further exploring its use as a tool for managing cumulative effects in the Muskoka River Watershed.